Sea Grant Climate Network
A Committee of the Assembly of Sea Grant Extension Program Leaders
Weather extremes caused by climate change?
Read a recent article on climate extremes and climate change; a concluding paragraph struck me as particularly useful in responding to the commonly asked question posed in the subject line, and I thought I'd share it:
Many climate scientists (including ourselves) routinely answer media calls after extreme events with the phrase that a particular event cannot be directly attributed to global warming. This is often misunderstood by the public to mean that the event is not linked to global warming, even though that may be the case — we just can’t be certain. If a loaded dice rolls a six, we cannot say that this particular outcome was due to the manipulation — the question is ill-posed. What we can say is that the number of sixes rolled is greater with the loaded dice (perhaps even much greater). Likewise, the odds for certain types of weather extremes increase in a warming climate (perhaps very much so). Attribution is not a ‘yes or no’ issue as the media might prefer, it is an issue of probability. It is very likely that several of the unprecedented extremes of the past decade would not have occurred without anthropogenic global warming. Detailed analysis can provide specific numbers for certain types of extreme, as in the examples discussed above.
The article is here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1...
The IPCC Released a report on extreme weather and climate change today as well; that's here: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
Jesse
Comment
To increase the effectiveness of Sea Grant climate programming and outreach nationwide.
Latest Activity
Events
NOAA News Releases
NOAA expects below-normal Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center today announced that climate conditions point to a below-normal season in the Central Pacific Basin this year..Severe weather threats move into lower Great Lakes, Tennessee Valley Wednesday
Get late-breaking weather information, and your local forecast, at http://www.weather.gov.More severe weather expected from Great Lakes to Central Texas on Tuesday
Get late-breaking information from the NOAA National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/).NASA Climate Science
Scientists find ancient microbes in Antarctic lake
In one of the most remote lakes of Antarctica, nearly 65 feet (19.8 meters) beneath the icy surface, scientists have uncovered a community of bacteria.Drygalski Ice Tongue, Antarctica
Take a peek at our latest Earth image of the week. If you like it, download it!Ice sheet loss at both poles increasing, study finds
An international team of experts has produced the most comprehensive and accurate assessment to date of ice sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica and their contributions to sea level rise.Science Daily Climate News
Tropical upper atmosphere 'fingerprint' of global warming
The winds of the quasibiennial oscillation in the tropical upper atmosphere have greatly weakened at some altitudes over the last six decades, according to a new study. The finding is consistent with computer model projections of how the upper atmosphere responds to global warming induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations.Carbon capture: Making use of minerals
Ammonium salts could provide a viable way of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere via carbon mineralization, studies suggest.Life scientists present new insights on climate change and species interactions
Life scientists provide important new details on how climate change will affect interactions between species in newly published research. This knowledge, they say, is critical to making accurate predictions and informing policymakers of how species are likely to be impacted by rising temperatures.
© 2013 Created by SGCN Admin.
Powered by
You need to be a member of Sea Grant Climate Network to add comments!
Join Sea Grant Climate Network